Canelo vs Cotto: Prediction Edition

cotto-vs-canelo

Jarrett Bato 

It’s refreshing to have a fight like this come at a time of the year when nostalgia hits the hardest. As the year comes to a close, we humans naturally contemplate of the days that have gone by and why our current reality doesn’t quite match it. That’s why Cotto taking the challenge of Canelo is very important for the sport, and will cement Cotto’s legacy as one of the greatest that ever stepped in the ring.

There’s almost no advantage given to any of the boxers on the signing of this fight. Cotto could have easily given himself an advantage in the weight limit, but the fight is set at 155, which is still easily made for Canelo, though probably still more difficult for Canelo compared to Cotto. The A-side/B-side mental game that Cotto sometimes wallows in has no effect to Canelo, who is of the new generation of boxers that doesn’t accept that the house poses any underlying advantage to any fighter. On paper, it seems that the fight is at an even keel, given the richer experience of Cotto versus the raw and still-blooming talent of Canelo.

I think the key to this fight will be preparation, where here Cotto has the advantage. Cotto has never been shy to make big changes that are needed, and that’s truly the mark of experience and ring generalship, and I believe there couldn’t be any better team behind him than Team Freddie Roach. I think Freddie will bring an excellent game plan to the fight that will expose some of Canelo’s tendencies ala Ronda Rousey, because Canelo has honestly been exploiting his natural talents with little evolution fight to fight.

However, Canelo has demonstrated the ability to evolve as the fight goes on with the one thing he has improved, which is his endurance. With his newfound endurance, he’s able to focus longer, improvise longer, and pull out majestic combinations exploiting new holes in his opponent that weren’t obvious in his earlier fights that went longer than 5 rounds because he’s been too gassed to see them. If Canelo indeed puts 100% focus on Cotto he might just pull off the upset.

But that’s what it will be, an upset compared to the potential perfect game plan. #warcotto, UD

Prediction: Cotto by unanimous decision 

Rudy Mondragon (Twitter: @boxingintellect)

I have dedicated a great deal of time thinking about the outcome of this fight. My heart says Miguel Cotto, but my studies tell me Saul Canelo Alvarez will emerge as the victor.

Since hooking up with Freddie Roach, many have said that Cotto is a new and improved boxer. I agree, to an extent. Cotto has had his ups and downs. Many thought he was done after his loss to Austin Trout in December 2012.

Since then, Cotto has been under the watchful eye of Roach and has won three straight. Two of his three wins have come off worthy opponents. Cotto beat Sergio Martinez in June 2014 and Daniel Geale a year later. A closer look at those two opponents however, reveal serious discrepancies. Martinez had 2 bad knees and was inches away from retirement. Geale was drained at the weigh-in and looked similar to the many zombies that appear on the Walking Dead.

Based on those two victories, I can’t confidently say that Miguel Cotto is a new and improved fighter. After all, how much can a fighter learn from a new trainer this late into their career? However, I do believe that Cotto is inspired by Roach and has a great deal of faith in him. This makes Cotto’s corner a dangerous one when it comes to strategy and game plan.

At age 25, Canelo is younger and hungry for what Cotto has. Although Canelo is the favorite to win this fight, it is Cotto who has the A-Side power. Miguel Cotto will earn $15 million for this fight, while Canelo will take $5 million. Not a bad pay day by any means, but Canelo wants to continue building his legacy. In order to establish himself as an all-time great however, he needs to take down the experienced Miguel Cotto, who serves as Canelo’s gatekeeper.

Canelo is not the best boxer and in this fight, he will emerge as the combination puncher that will chase Cotto down. Canelo will cut the ring and take some of Miguel’s punches in order to land power shots of his own. At age 35, Cotto will not be able to put together a complete fight. A complete fight requires Cotto to land 1-2 punch combinations and quickly circle left and right. Cotto will not land power punches. This is too dangerous for Cotto because it means sitting down on his punches, leaving him vulnerable to Canelo power combinations. Eventually, Cotto will tire and Canelo will be able to catch him more frequently. Cotto bruises and bleeds easily. By the 8th or 9th round, expect to see Cotto’s face visibly marked. My prediction is that Canelo will trap Cotto in a corner or on the ropes and stop him in the 11th round.

My heart is with Cotto and I hope I am wrong with my prediction. I just don’t see the younger and hungry Canelo losing this fight. There is too much on the line for him. Canelo has graduated from the defeat he had against Mayweather. This will be reflective tomorrow night as Canelo will pull the trigger and take successful risks in his quest to take down the future hall of famer.

Prediction: Canelo by 11th round stoppage 

Check out the video collaborations between Blood Money Boxing’s Rudy Mondragon and In My Humble’s Pierre Banks:

 

Martinez vs Cotto: BMB Predictions

On Saturday June 7, 2014 Sergio “Maravilla” Martinez will step into the ring against the challenger from Caguas, Miguel Cotto. This fight is for WBC Middleweight Title. But more than that, this fight represents multiple opportunities and possibilities. For Miguel, it means the possibility of becoming the first fighter in Puerto Rican history to win titles in four weight classes. It also means the possibility for a future fight with Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez. For Martinez,  this fight represents the defending of his middleweight crown but also solidifying himself as an elite fighter. In beating an A-Side fighter in Miguel Cotto, Sergio Martinez can add a reputable future hall of fame fighter to his boxing resume.

Both men are coming off wins. Cotto beat Delvin Rodriguez back in October of 2013 and Martinez beat Martin Murray in April of 2013. Cotto will come into the ring with more recent activity where as Maravilla will have had a whole year of absence from the ring. The question remains, will Martinez’s past injuries be a factor in this fight? Let’s see how the Blood Money Boxing team is predicting the outcome of this fight.

Jarrett Bato

The fight hype for Cotto-Martinez was a 100% immediately after the Mayweather fight, marketing the best thing they have going for the fight: there is no one with a clear advantage. Just for that small, significant, and delightful fact, I’m extremely happy, because all the fight fans I know and all around the world through twitter and facebook are excited about this fight. My Puerto Rican co-worker Julio is #teamcotto, and I am #teammaravilla since he took out Paul Williams. He predicts a 6th round stoppage, and I predict inline to Maravilla’s own prediction, a 9th round knockout. I am hoping that the fight goes the distance, personally, as the styles that will be displayed that night are very interesting theoretically.

Cotto’s brawling style has been tamed and refined somewhat by being in Roach’s stable, and given his last fight with Delvin Rodriguez, bringing in vintage-Cotto-style with strong left hooks felt by the light-middleweights, I think he is thriving under Roach’s guidance, bringing big power up weight classes.

Maravilla, however, has so many intangibles going for him, and against him too. His injuries, however much he claims healthy, will be a factor that Cotto will take advantage off immediately if he shows any sign of holding back in ring movement. But Maravilla’s strength in will and genius improvisation could steal the show if he is able to hurt Cotto, as Maravilla does have the power in his hands that brought bigger men down.

I think Maravilla’s mind will be the winning factor here, so much so that he will fulfill his own destiny and his prediction. #warmaravilla!

Sergio Martinez with the Win

Miguel Marino 

Home-court advantage is something that the ordinary boxing fan doesn’t normally associated with boxing. Fights occur sporadically throughout cities and venues that make it hard for fighters to call a venue their home. Well, there might be an exception.  Miguel Cotto boasts a proud 7-1 record at Madison Square Garden where he’ll face a “100% healthy” Sergio Martinez. Though Martinez is considered a slight favorite, I expect Cotto to be aggressive from the starting bell and land some quality punches. This will be closer than people think, but ultimately, the home-court advantage of the Madison Square Garden will favor Miguel Cotto.

Miguel Cotto via split-decision

Jose Hernandez 

Miguel Cotto wins a close decision 

Rudy Mondragon

This is the fight of what ifs? If Sergio Martinez is healthy, he should win a tough war. If his knee and hands are fine, he will be his usual self. If Sergio doesn’t blow up to more than 16 lbs, he will be able to maintain speed and fluidity. If Miguel Cotto brings back his signature left hook, he will be able to break down his opponent. If Cotto can outbox the athlete, he will make it a competitive fight that will go to the cards. In my honest opinion, I feel that a year off did Martinez well. He has healed. He will have ring rust, but he will command the ring, use his speed to counter attack, and when Cotto uses his signature two glove guard close to his temples, Martinez will make him pay with hard hooks that will connect to Cotto’s gloves, transferring pain to the mans head. Think Darren Barker fight. In beating Cotto to the punch, Martinez will draw blood midway into the fight and that is when Miguel will start to open up and go on survival mode. This is dangerous as Martinez will have more openings to execute. Look for a 10th round stoppage for your winner and still WBC Middleweight Champion, Sergio Martinez.

Sergio Martinez via 10th round TKO

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Quick Take: Marvin Sonsona wants Redemption

Vasquez Sonsona

Looks like the card to the Maravilla vs. Cotto event will also be exciting with Filipino prospect “Marvelous” Marvin Sonsona to try to redeem his first knockout loss from Puerto Rican Wilfredo Vasquez Jr. Wilfredo is a tough fighter, he has been in the ring with big names in the bantamweight division such as Arce, and Donaire, but lost to those two fellows. Not without making an impression, which he must have because he hasn’t had a big name fight since. Marvin Sonsona, however, does not lack from talent, and is coming back from a string of 4 wins in a row with his confidence at an all time high. Though he came in overweight, and seems to have problems in that area as his reign as Super Flyweight champion ended also because of weight issues.

If he is able to be disciplined and focused in the ring, he should win, but his carelessness might end the fight early for him as Wilfredo is a solid fighter. BMB will be tuning in!