Lara vs Canelo: BMB Predictions

Canelo Lara

This is a fight that many of us have been waiting to see. I’d like to give a shout to both fighters – Lara for calling out Canelo at his own press conference and Canelo for stepping up like a young G despite his advisors discouraging him to take the fight.

Now, then, it’s important to remember a few things about this bout.

First, this fight is not for a belt. So, the traditional thoughts about the champ having the upper hand don’t really fly here. In fact, many consider Lara, who currently holds the interim WBA light middleweight title, to be the underdog in this bout given the fan base and hoopla behind the GoldenBoy-backed Cinnamon Man himself.

Second, the bout is being held at a catchweight of 155lbs, one pound over the official light-middleweight limit. While one pound may not seem like much, it can make the world of a difference when trying to drop several pounds from your normal body weight for the weigh-in, simply to blow back up to the 170lb+ range (hint: think Canelo). So, again, some believe this gives Canelo an advantage, which is probably why his camp asked for the catchweight in the first place.

Mateo Banegas

On to the keys to victory and prediction.

Canelo is a young, strong fighter who has demonstrated improvement with every fight, even considering his lopsided loss to Mayweather. For him to be successful, he’s going to have to land shots to the body of Lara, in hopes of slowing his opponent down in the later rounds. Canelo also needs to cut off the ring, limiting Lara’s movement, and use his weight/strength advantage to push and keep Lara against the ropes so that he can land punches on the inside. It will also be essential for Canelo to stay busy and keep throwing punches. As long as Canelo can land hits, they will add up and wear down Lara, little by little. Lastly, he’ll need use good head movement and watch out for that killer left of Lara.

Lara is a tremendous technical boxer from the Cuban school of boxing. He has great movement and footwork, which should benefit him as he tries to stay away from Canelo’s punches. It may also tire out Canelo, if he decides to try and chase Lara around the ring hoping to engage him in a firefight. Lara will need to use his angles and land calculated shots, which he did very effectively against Trout and even Angulo to some extent. The left hand of Lara is devastating and his most powerful weapon, if he employs his jab to set up this shot, just as he has done so well in the past, all should be good. Even though Lara was able to pull out the win against Angulo, he didn’t look so well at times. Angulo was able to land some great uppercuts and catch Lara on his chin with nice counterpunches, leading to two knockdowns. This is super important with an opponent like Canelo, so Lara will have to be stay away from too many close exchanges and keep his hands up as he moves out.

Lara should outbox Canelo, as he is the better, more sound boxer, and be able to land effectively against Canelo. If Lara isn’t able to get a knockout (and I don’t think he will), he’ll have to put on a masterclass show against Canelo – putting him well ahead in points by the end of the fight to get a win by decision. Canelo’s advantages make him a dangerous opponent that could end the fight for Lara at any moment or steal the win by decision in close fought bout. In the end, Lara wins a great fight, while Canelo shows enough to maintain his worldwide fan base.

Jeff Schimmel

I’ve been pondering this one for a long time. So many thoughts. Perhaps one of the toughest fights to pick with any confidence. I don’t think anyone will look foolish for backing either one of these guys.

I’ve never been too impressed with Alvarez. He’s got a lot of gifts, but he doesn’t always fight smart. He hits hard, but so what? It’s boxing. You’re going to get hit.

Lara is tricky and fast and a lefty. He could present all kinds of problems. In my opinion, he got robbed in the Williams fight, so maybe judges don’t like his style or they don’t like his promoters.

Also, Lara went down twice against Angulo, and he was gassed midway through the fight. Luckily, Angulo had a hard time catching him. I doubt Alvarez will apply less pressure than Angulo, so if Lara isn’t in the best shape of his life, he’ll fade and get KO’d. I’d hate to see that.

I feel that Lara has to either hurt or at least cut up Alvarez early to back him off a bit and make him think. If Lara can do that, he can win a decision.

I don’t see Alvarez winning a decision. He either pounds Lara into submission and wins by KO, or Lara wins by decision. So hard to guess.

In my heart, I’d LOVE to see Lara make Alvarez quit and win by TKO.

Jarrett Bato

I’m very excited for the first round because of all the intangibles each fighter has. Lara has to demonstrate confident speed and skill that looks like it will not fade to win. Otherwise, Canelo’s confidence, power, and improving consistency will take it. Canelo seems very motivated to beat him while it seems Lara is looking past him already which I hope isn’t true. In any case I think Canelo wants to prove to the world that he’s a talent beyond talents and give him props for selecting worthy opponents this time. I think Canelo should take this one but damn if Lara boxes beautifully tomorrow it will be a masterpiece exhibition.

Rudy Mondragon

This is an exciting fight based on the two names. However, this fight is one that puts an amazing boxer versus a decent boxer with power. I am leaning towards Lara in this fight as he is the more athletic and skilled fighter. In looking at the weight in, it appears that Lara is in good shape while Canelo looked dry and dehydrated. It is no mystery as to why the fight is taking place at a catch weight of 155lbs.  This surely helps Canelo, who looks to be either outgrowing this weight class or not eating his vegetables. Heavier Canelo for tomorrow nights fight versus a very fit and quick Lara. Lara’s speed will allow him to outbox Canelo early. Once the later rounds come, based on Canelo’s history, the young Mexican fighter will fade and he will lead his attack by throwing single power punches. Lara, by boxing and controlling the tempo, will be able to counter punch the one punch efforts of Canelo. Lara will collect points, execute a boxing style of swimming without getting wet, and will weather early storms towards a unanimous decision win. Canelo will be okay with the defeat. At his young age and with his marketability, Golden Boy Promotions will continue to find ways to squeeze all the dollars out of him.

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