Key’s to Victory: Garcia vs Lopez

ImageBy Rudy Mondragon

The keys to victory for each boxer and my prediction are very important. But before I get to that, it is critical to let all the Blood Money Boxing experience fans know that Mikey Garcia (31-0, 26 KOs) did not make weight today!

Garcia came in tipping the scales at 128 lbs, 2 pounds over the featherweight limit. Garcia was able to negotiate a six figure settlement that will go to Juan Manuel Lopez (33-2, 30 KOs). This was necessary so that tomorrow nights fight still goes on. What this means is that Lopez can claim the WBO featherweight title if he were to beat Garcia tomorrow. Garcia cannot win the belt back if he wins tomorrow night.

Interesting stuff, especially given the fact that Mikey Garcia did not even try to cut those 2 extra pounds before time expired at the weight in today. Is Garcia trying to come into this fight a bit heavier? Will the extra weight that he will put on in the next 24 hours give him extra punching power?

My thoughts are no, Mikey Garcia did not try to cut the weight because his body shut down. At the weight in, Garcia looked dry and boney in the face. These are the affects of dehydration and desperately trying to make weight for a fight. Although he did not try to lose that weight during the weight in, it is evident that he tried hard leading up to the weight in to shed that extra weight, which left him gassed. Lopez on the other hand looked fresh and made weight comfortably.

So do we have a Rock-Paper-Scissor scenario on our hands? Orlando Salido (Rock) beat Lopez (Scissor) and Garcia (Paper) beat Salido (Rock)…  If this theory holds any weight, this mean Scissor (Lopez) will beat Paper (Garcia) tomorrow night…

Before I dive into my prediction, here are the key’s to victory:

Lopez

  1. Utilize your speed and quickness to keep Garcia on his toes and at a distance
  2. Do not engage in a toe-to-toe fight with Garcia as he has too much composure, accuracy and power that can rock that suspect chin of Lopez.
  3. Break Garcia down early by jabbing to set up body work and head shots. If Garcia is truly gassed from making weight, then it will show in the later rounds. Later rounds is where Lopez can take risks and go for a KO or TKO victory.

Garcia

  1. Stay composed and calm as he always is. This will help calm any nerves and save energy for the late rounds.
  2. Utilize his boxing skills, accurate punches and timing to disable Lopez’s speed and quickness.
  3. If he is able to hurt Lopez early, he will need to finish him off and avoid going the distance and risk his body from shutting down.

So can the Rock/Paper/Scissor theory inform us of who will win tomorrow night? In the simple sense, the theory tells us that Lopez will beat Garcia tomorrow. However, the focal point of this theory is that styles make fights. I would argue that both Garcia and Lopez are boxers. Garcia is more composed and technical while Lopez is fast, quick, athletic, and likes to brawl from time to time (downfall against Salido and put down by B Concepcion). Their styles are similar, but tomorrow will come down to who fights the smarter fight. Going into the fight tomorrow we know both have weaknesses. Garcia failed to make weight and could be more gassed in this fight than he has ever been. Lopez thinks he can brawl and mix it up, yet has a suspect chin and shaky on his recovery time. Based on their styles and the weaknesses that both fighters posses, I predict Mikey Garcia will fight a smart fight where he will plan on fighting for 12 rounds. Lopez will try to use his speed and quickness on Garcia, but will find little success in connecting punches. Lopez being a southpaw will force Garcia to adjust, which he will early on. Expect a boxing exhibition displayed by Garcia, one that is composed, selective and careful to save energy for the final bell.

Mikey Garcia will win via 12 round unanimous decision

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