It’s About Being Smart: Mayweather//Guerrero Breakdown


By Rudy Mondragón

Here we are again, fast approaching one of the most important weekends in boxing: Cinco de Mayo weekend. As boxing fans, we love it. It never gets old, especially when you have two good fighters in the ring. Robert ‘The Ghost’ Guerrero (31-1-1, 18 KOs) will face Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather Jr (43-0, 26 KOs) for the WBC Welterweight title in what appears to be an exciting main event.

The two campus have challenged each other verbally.  Mayweather Jr saying he is tired of the same sympathy story regarding Guerrero’s wife’s battle with cancer. The Ghost saying he will knock out Mayweather Jr. Guerrero’s father saying he will knockout Mayweather Sr. in a street fight. And just today, Ruben Guerrero calling Floyd Mayweather Jr. a women beater during a press conference.

Nothing new in the hype-up process of any fight. No doubt  Mayweather Jr. did wrong, he did his time for misdemeanor battery and I hope he’s learned from that experience. Watching Ruben Guerrero at the podium, one can see that he lost his composure and went on a rant that made him and his team look horrible. Today’s press conference tells us something. Camp Guerrero (the father more specifically) lost their cool. If the press conference was too hot for them, I can only imagine Saturday night being unfamiliar terrain that will be too much for Team Guerrero.  

Many questions will be answered after this fight for both fighters  Will this fight reveal something new about Mayweather? How will his one year layoff affect him? What affect did the 2 months in jail for misdemeanor battery do to him? Will having a six fight, 30 month contract with Showtime make him less hunger? Will having his father in his corner be a good thing?

How well has Robert recovered since his November war with Berto? How will a pending gun charges hearing for Guerrero affect him mentally come May 4th? How will he respond to the pressures of being on a larger boxing stage? Will his aggressive style be effective? Or will he walk into classic Mayweather rights?

There are many things to consider for this fight. Below are the keys to victory for both men:

Robert Guerrero

  1. Execute a high pressure fight from the beginning. Overwhelm Mayweather in a phone booth fight and attack the body.
  2. Mix it up. Box and use his jab, use faints, attack from different angles, enter the phone booth to exchange punches, and switch to orthodox at times. This will make it harder for Mayweather to adjust and execute.
  3. Remain calm, collected and poised. Stick to your game plan and don’t get sucked in to fighting Mayweather’s fight. Don’t believe me, watch the Hatton and Ortiz fights.

Floyd Mayweather

  1. Be yourself. Utilize your defensive stance (chin tucked, shoulder roll) and make Guerrero miss early and counter with rights. This will frustrate him.
  2. Beat Guerrero to the punch when he lunges forward. Guerrero has the habit of putting his head down when he enters the phone booth.
  3. Mayweather Jr. will need to be patient and pick his shots. This will help him break Guerrero down and allow him to go for a late stoppage.


The Ghost knows that he will need to be aggressive early on and look to hurt Mayweather. This is going to play into Mayweather’s hands. Look for Mayweather to quickly adjust and exploit Guerrero’s weakness. Guerrero’s weakness will be his belief that brawling and smothering Mayweather in a phone booth will be effective. It won’t and Mayweather will frustrate Guerrero by connecting clean blows to the head. Guerrero will have success and get the crowed going by attacking Mayweather’s body and missing head shots in close proximity. However, Mayweather will connect and by the middle of the fight, I can see Guerrero’s face begin to swell. Let’s not forget what Berto did to Guerrero’s face. With his boxing ability, Mayweather can do that and then some.

I see Guerrero trying to brawl, but finding little success. The truth is that Guerrero will be out classed. Mayweather will find a way to get a late stoppage not because he is the baddest man on the planet, but because he is the smartest.

Mayweather wins via TKO, Round 9


  1. Beautiful! Read my mind! I have a couple to add for your llaves a victoria:

    Robert Guerrero

    Commit to the body! Mayweather is a genius in split second core adjustments to reduce the effective power of the body blow. The key for Guerrero here is to follow through with his hooks and straights, especially in the likely situation where they’re going to be trading punches. Guerrero has to push through and connect fully and keep doing it.

    Tuck the elbows in! Turtle defense will be the key while trying to focus on the getting the punches through Mayweather’s veil of illusions, while cutting off the ring and corralling him with hooks.

    Double the left! An active left to exploit the straight left could be fruitful. Mayweather is good at moving at both directions but there must be a reason he’s uncomfortable with southpaws.

    Floyd Mayweather

    Angles! I predict we’re going to see a whole new dimension of the detroit style this weekend. A style where Mayweather is actually going to stay in place and dodge instead of backing up. I feel he wants to showcase his power punches this time.

    Beat the trade! You got this one Rudy, he’s going to have to go in overdrive in the scenario where Guerrero is committing to his punches. Demonstrating an even faster shooting and dodging (with combos, oh lawd) will make doubters believe in unavoidable debates of G.O.A.T.

  2. Yes, great additions! Southpaws give mayweather trouble and it will take some adjustments. once mayweather figures it out, he will be able to connect straight and short rights and slowly tear guerrero down. will be exciting to watch, especially if mayweather diplays hi power and like u said, does not back up and trades at times with the ghost

  3. Reblogged this on LatinFut and commented:
    No te pierdas el artículo original en inglés de Rudy Mondragón previo a la pelea entre Floyd Mayweather Jr. y Robert Guerrero

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