On the night of April 20th, 2013, two undefeated fighters will face off in San Antonio, Texas to unify the WBC light middleweight and WBA super world light middleweight titles. Saul “Canelo Alvarez (41-0-1, 30 KOs) and Austin “No Doubt” Trout (26-0, 14 KOs) are fighters who have made names for themselves, yet are still looking for a big win that will inform the public of their boxing ability as well as their pay-per view credibility.
With a recent notable win against Miguel Cotto of Caguas, Puerto Rico (12 round decision), Austin Trout earned his opportunity to fight Saul Alvarez. Saul has had a different path towards this fight. Golden Boy Promotions has attempted to set up marquee matches (i.e. versus Victor Ortiz and James Kirkland) that would have been competitive for the young Alvarez. However, those plans failed as Victor Ortiz had his jaw broken by Josesito Lopez and Kirkland’s team requested more money to fight Canelo. As those plans went out the window, Saul instead fought lesser opponents in Alfonso Gomez, a past his prime Shane Mosely, and an outgunned and underweight Josesito Lopez.
What does this all mean? Let’s take a look at the five keys to victory for both fighters:
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez
- Utilize his strength and power to break down Trout (over 70% of his fights have ended in a KO)
- Unleash multiple violent attacks to Trout’s body in order to set up a late stoppage
- Be mentally and physically prepared to fight 12 rounds
- Make Trout fight his fight by being aggressive early and setting the pace
- Cut the ring and not let Trout move too much (especially to his right)
Austin “No Doubt” Trout
- Exploit his southpaw stance to frustrate and force Canelo to adjust
- Box Box Box: By utilizing his speed and technical boxing, Trout can work his way to a 12 round decision
- Counter Canelo with 1-2-3 punch combinations
- It is in his best interest to not stand toe to toe with Canelo, quick combos and then move out the way!
- Having fought multiple times in Texas, Trout knows he needs to establish himself early in the fight in order to silence and frustrate the pro-Canelo audience.
As many boxing fans know, styles make fights. For this bout, Trout’s style as a speedy technical boxer will make it difficult for Canelo. Throw in the fact that Trout is a southpaw will also pose a challenge for Canelo and will require him to adjustment. This is not the first time Trout enters his rivals backyard. Remember, that his how he beat Canelo’s brother for the vacant WBA world light middleweight title. Canelo will need to attack the body, save his energy for the championship rounds, and take risks for the late stoppage. Being in Texas brings back history of controversial decisions and referee stoppages (i.e. Kirkland vs. Molina and Malignaggi vs. Diaz). Trout will need to win by stoppage or convincingly dominate majority of the fight to win a decision in San Antonio.
Trout will box well early on and utilize his movement to win the first few rounds. Canelo will make sure Trout feels his power and will do a good job attacking Trout’s body and transitioning to devastating head shots. I see this fight going the distance where Trout’s experience as being the underdog will help him execute a smart and technical fight earning him the split decision victory.
What are your thoughts?